August 27, 2013: All Russia can do is wait. That is the headline one of the most
prestigious newspapers in the country, Kommersant, summarizing the latest developments
of the Kremlin's diplomatic pressure on Europe and the United States, to avoid the
increasingly realistic step of military intervention against the Syrian regime. U.S.,
Britain and France are convinced that government forces used the chemical weapons
in Ghouta (outskirts of Damascus), on 21 August, and in response want a NATO attack,
even without the mandate of the Security Council. Moscow has condemned the initiative
as "a violation of international law," he warned against "dire consequences" for the
whole region, but can only invite its Western partners to caution, pending the results
of the UN experts inquiry into the use of chemical weapons in Syria.
President
Vladimir Putin reiterated to the British Prime Minister, David Cameron, that "there
is no evidence" of Bashar al-Assad's forces being responsible for the chemical attack.
The Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, at an urgently convened conference August 26,
complained that "the West has already decided." At the same time he warned against
having any illusions: "Bombing the military infrastructure, leaving the field of battle
open to victory for the opposition to the regime, will not solve the situation." Even
if there is a victory, the civil war will continue", declared the head of Russian
diplomacy, recalling the examples of Iraq and Libya.
Lavrov also criticized
the U.S., referring how the Secretary of State, John Kerry, has failed to provide
or explain Washington's strategy on Syria. At the same time, he ensured the White
House remains determined to bring the Syrian opposition to the table of an international
peace conference. Which at this point would be "impossible" to hold in September,
as first thought, admitted the Russian minister, convinced that '"hysteria" around
chemical weapons is being whipped up by those who want to derail any political solution
to the crisis. Signs arriving from the U.S. are far from encouraging after the meeting
scheduled for August 28, in The Hague, with the Russian delegates to revive Geneva
2 was postponed at the last minute.
Beyond the bright tones, the Kremlin -
which alongside China has blocked all resolutions against Assad at the UN - can do
little to deter the coalition military option. The increasingly tense relations with
the White House, note analysts, deprive Moscow of any weapon of effective pressure.
And the Federation has no interest in being drawn into an international conflict.
As Lavrov himself said, Russia "will not go to war with anyone."
"It 's hard
to imagine that Russia will interfere directly in case of intervention" - political
scientist Sergei Karaganov, head of a working group of the Presidential Council for
Human Rights told Interfax. "I highly doubt that it is useful or can provide the necessary
hardware, in such a situation, and enough weapons have already been accumulated there.
"
Alexei Makarkin, vice president of the Center for political technologies,
is convinced that in case of outside intervention, Moscow will react towards the U.S.,
but only with non-military measures. Speaking to The Moscow Times, the analyst pointed
out that because of poor bilateral relations between the Kremlin and the White House,
Putin has no way to influence Barack Obama's decision. Evgheny Satanovsky, head of
the think tank Institute for the Middle East is of the same opinion: "There are no
strong economic ties between the two countries, the U.S. does not depend in any way
on Russia and vice versa." Obama's visit of to the G20 meeting in St. Petersburg (5-6
September) will be completely ruined if there is any military intervention beforehand-
the expert warned - but the most Moscow can actually do is cancel the face to face
meeting with the U.S. President or cu back on its ties with the United States. " Moreover,
already at historic lows.
Even the White House's attempts to bring Russia to
abandon Assad are in vain. American analysts recall thestrategic interests at stake,
represent by the Russian naval base in Tartus, which counterbalances the American
naval fleet in the Mediterranean and Black Sea. The journalist Robert Fisk points
out that you only have to look at a map to understand Putin's concerns: Syria is close
to Chechnya, the Caucasus republic, which has already experienced an Islamic anti-Russian
revolt. The chaos in Syria could lead to new instability in that region never completely
pacified and from where many are believed to have left to enroll with the Syrian opposition. (Source:
AsiaNews)