Expectations of Conclave in the light of recent history
March 9, 2013: Senior Fellow at Georgetown University’s Woodstock Theological Center,
Fr. Thomas Reese said on Saturday that he believes the conclave will be a short one
because the Cardinals have had one month to get to know each other and sound out their
colleagues on the issues of concern to the Church. When talking to Vatican Radio’s
Tracey McClure , he said that the lengthy interval between the announcement of Benedict
XVI's resignation and the start of the Conclave will have provided ample opportunity
for different kinds of discussion among the Cardinals.
"Theoretically," said
Fr. Reese, "the longer they have to talk to one another, especially informally…that’s
where the really important thing happens. Where the Cardinals meet over dinner, over
coffee, just you know, visiting each other. (It’s) an opportunity to get to know each
other, to ask questions: ‘what do you think are the issues facing the Church, what
do you think the qualities we should have in a new pope?’ And what do you think of
this man or that man - this kind of informal discussion. Typically, after a while,
two or three names start to surface. The Cardinals all hear from each other and so
these become kind of the leading candidates. Now, the longer they have to do that,
you figure the better they know each other so once they get into the conclave, it’s
going to be quick. Unless – unless: let’s say the top two candidates block each other…you’ve
got to have that two-thirds majority.
And if the top candidates cannot get
a two-thirds majority, if one third plus one of the Cardinals don’t like him, that’s
it… so they’re going to be watching the votes. The more people move up, if they have
momentum, then that’s a good sign. But if they suddenly don’t get any more votes and
then they start to decline, well that’s the end of that candidacy.”
When asked
about whether there is a cut-off point for a conclave, he said: “No, absolutely not.
They have to stay in there until they pick a pope…What would happen …if the top candidates,
the front runners get knocked out? Well then you go to your second list. You know
your second choices. And then at that point, you know: I’m not going to get whom
I want; you’re not going to get whom you want. Well, who can we agree on as our second
choice as a compromise candidate? That’s the kind of thing that would make the conclave
go longer.
Obviously, (in) the last conclave (the Cardinals) came in and Cardinal
Ratzinger was pretty much everybody’s choice so the election was over in 24 hours.
On the other hand, if they’re deadlocked, it could take two, three days. We haven’t
had a long conclave since 1831. The conclave during the twentieth century never lasted
more than four days. So I would not expect it to last more than two or three days.”